A process called mental simulation because decision makers are simulating and envisioning a scenario - playing out in their heads what they expect would happen if they implemented the decision in a particular case. They build a picture of what they expect, and they watch this picture once, sometimes several times. If they like what they see, they are ready to respond. If they spot a problem, usually they can alter the action script. If they can't find a way around the problem, they jettison the option and look at the next option in the set without comparing it to any other options.
THis two-part process of pattern matching and mental simulation is the "recognition-primed decision" (RPD) model, which explains how people can make good decisions without generating and comparing a set of options. Pattern recognition primes the decision-making process but it needs to be tested through mental simulation.
Mental simulation is the way we evaluate our decisions and figure out what to expect before we implement them so we know later whether the decision is having the desired effect or not.
To construct a scenario of how an action script will work, create mental models of the way the fight will go, the way the types responses will withstand exposure to the violence, the way types of tactics and strategies will react when a adversary is handled in an attack. You need mental models of the environments where violence occurs, how it starts, how it will proceed and how it will end. You need a mental model of how you will combine a variety of techniques into counters to the violence.
In order to build an effective mental simulation, we need to have good mental models of how things work. This is another aspect of expertise, and another way that experience translates into action.
Mental models are out beliefs about how various processes work. They direct our explanations and expectations.
To summarize the RPD (recognition-primed decision ) process, intuitive decision making process works like this:
- Cues let us recognize patterns.
- Patterns activate action scripts.
- Action scripts are assessed through mental simulation.
- Mental simulation is driven by mental models.
RPD is used for about 90 percent of the difficult decisions in all fields. The strategy used is RPD making. Experienced decision makers rely heavily on intuition and rarely use the analytical methods that we have been taught. The idea of intuitive decision making has finally started to catch on with professional such as the firefighting community, the police community and to some extent the Army and Marines.
Persons using RPD have an ability to intuitively sense when a problem exists. The rely on intuition to perform well-learned behavior patterns rapidly. They synthesize isolated bits of data and experience into an integrated whole. They used intuition to bypass in-depth analysis. Intuition is an almost instantaneous cognitive process in which a person recognizes familiar patterns. Intuition is not the opposite of rationality, nor is it a random process of guessing. It is based on extensive experience both in analysis and problem solving and in implementation and to the extent that the lessons of experience are logical and well-founded, then so is the intuition.
Speed, flexibility, and adaptability are precisely the kinds of qualities that can be enhanced by intuitive decision making.
Bibliography:
Klein, Gary. "The Power of Intuition: Ho to Use Your Gut Feelings To Make Better Decisions at Work." Doubleday. New York. 2003.
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